Route Lab is AvioIQ's route-decision engine. It runs a proposed route through the full commercial picture, from traffic capture, network feed and cannibalisation to airline-specific yield, costs and aircraft opportunity cost, then simulates the risk and returns one auditable verdict: a composite score, the probable P&L, and a clear GO, MARGINAL or NO-GO.
Route Lab answers one question: should we launch this route, and if so how? It sizes the traffic a schedule can realistically win, credits the network feed it generates, nets off what it cannibalises, and builds cost from the aircraft up, including the station-establishment and opportunity costs most models quietly skip.
Nothing is ever a single-point forecast. A Monte Carlo simulation returns P10/P50/P90 route-contribution EBITDA and a probability of loss, a Model Confidence Score says how far to trust it, and a composite 0 to 100 score resolves to a defensible GO, MARGINAL or NO-GO, with the recommended entry strategy attached.
No single-point forecasts. Every route comes back as a distribution: P10/P50/P90 EBITDA, P(loss) and a Model Confidence Score, so the call holds up in front of a board, a lender or a regulator.
Route Lab is a decision pipeline, not a calculator. You hand it your inventory and intent; it proposes and screens the candidates, models the full commercial reality of each, simulates the risk, and returns one auditable verdict per route. Figures below are an illustrative sample.
Route Lab begins from your constraints, not a blank map: available aircraft and their range envelopes, the kind of airline you run, the strategic reason you're looking, and the season. A minimum-viability floor filters uneconomically thin markets before any analysis runs.
Every airport pair within range becomes a candidate, then a hard feasibility gate removes anything that can't actually be flown — slots, runway, curfew, bilaterals, fleet. What survives is ranked by why the market is underserved, so you never chase a false positive dressed up as an opportunity.
| Route | O&D market | Gate | Diagnosis |
|---|---|---|---|
| BLR → SIN | 1.24M | Pass | Latent demand |
| BLR → BKK | 0.92M | Pass | Underpriced |
| BLR → HKG | 0.41M | Slots | Gated |
| BLR → CGK | 0.63M | Pass | Suppressed |
For each surviving route Route Lab models the full commercial picture — the traffic it can realistically win, the network value it creates, what it takes from the rest of your network, and a cost built from the aircraft up, including the establishment and opportunity costs most models quietly skip. The output is a True Route Contribution, not a headline revenue figure.
Route Lab runs each route through thousands of simulations, so every output is a spread of outcomes rather than a single guess. You get a probability of loss, and a confidence score that tells you how far to trust the result given the data behind it.
Everything resolves to a single composite score from 0 to 100 and a defensible GO, MARGINAL or NO-GO — with a recommended entry strategy attached. It arrives as a board-ready report, every input traceable to its source and confidence.
Directionally accurate results, instantly — for screening a shortlist, sweeping a sensitivity grid or comparing scenarios. Within ±15–25% of decision-grade on EBITDA, so exploration never means reopening a spreadsheet.
The complete engine — full traffic capture, network effects, station costs and Monte Carlo — triggered when a route is headed for the board or investment committee. Every route in the pipeline ranks in one portfolio view by composite score, P50 EBITDA and P(loss).
Bring a market or a route. We'll show you the reconstructed economics live.